Rivals meet up in Starkville for SEC action

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2012 - Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Instate rivals collide in Starkville this evening, as the 20th-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs play host to the Ole Miss Rebels in an SEC affair at the Humphrey Coliseum.

Rick Stansbury's Bulldogs can't afford to fall any further behind in the SEC standings, as the team comes into this contest at 5-3 in league play, currently fourth in the conference standings. MSU has won three of its last four games, including a thrilling 91-88 shootout against Auburn last weekend.

Andy Kennedy's Rebels are six games over .500 at 14-8, but are even in the SEC at 4-4. Ole Miss has lost two of its last three games, including a heart- breaking 69-67 double-overtime game at Alabama on Saturday.

Although, Mississippi State holds a 138-106 series advantage, it is Ole Miss seeking the regular-season sweep after posting a 75-68 win in Oxford on January 18th. The last time Ole Miss swept the season series was in 1998.

Nick Williams led the way with 19 points, including some key baskets down the stretch, but Ole Miss was unable to secure a win in Tuscaloosa, falling to the Crimson Tide by two points in double-overtime. Williams was joined in double figures by forwards Terrance Henry and Reginald Buckner, who finished with 14 and 11 points, respectively. Fellow forward Murphy Holloway added eight points and nine rebounds to the cause, but could not prevent the team from falling to 4-4 in league play.

The Rebels strong in the frontcourt with Henry, Holloway and Buckner. Henry is a player that can score both inside and out and currently leads the team in scoring at 12.2 ppg. Holloway is strong in the paint, averaging a near double-double with 10.3 points and 9.4 rebounds per game (third in the league). Buckner isn't much of a scorer (6.9 ppg) but is a force defensively, grabbing 8.5 rpg and leading the team with 51 blocks. He is the SEC's active leader in blocked shots with 210 in his career (school record). Williams (10.4 ppg) and Jarvis Summers (9.9 ppg) are backcourt complements and complete the starting five.

The Bulldogs enjoy a more balanced attack, with a dominant star down low and plenty of perimeter firepower in the backcourt. Junior forward Arnett Moultrie has been unstoppable this season and is certainly on the short list when talking about candidates for SEC Player of the Year. The 6-11 veteran is averaging a double-double, leading the team in both scoring (17.0 ppg) and rebounding (11.1 rpg). He gets help along the frontline from fellow forward Renardo Sidney (10.2 ppg). Balance comes in the form of guards Dee Bost and Rodney Hood. Bost, a 6-2 senior, is both a prolific scorer (15.8 ppg) and deft distributor (4.7 apg). Hood, a 6-8 freshman, creates mismatches with his size and adds 11.3 ppg to the scoring deluge. Overall, MSU is averaging 73.8 ppg, doing so on a healthy .465 shooting.

Auburn put up a season-high 88 points, but the Bulldogs were more than up to the challenge, posting 91 in a thrilling victory this past weekend. Overall, MSU drained just over 60 percent of its shots in the game, as five Bulldogs finished in double figures. Moultrie was once again strong down low, leading the team with 21 points. Sidney poured in 17 and Bost fiished with 15 points and seven assists. Jalen Steele added 13 points off the bench, while Hood chipped in with 11.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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