Jimenez wins 18th as Rockies double-up Reds

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Troy Tulowitzki hit the go-ahead home run and Ubaldo Jimenez finally picked up his long-awaited 18th win of the season as Colorado outlasted Cincinnati, 10-5, to begin a crucial four-game series at Coors Field.

Jimenez (18-6) became the Rockies' all-time single season wins leader after five prior aborted attempts. He struggled through six innings during which he yielded four runs on seven hits and six walks while striking out eight for the Rockies, who climbed to within four games of division-leading San Diego in the NL West and 4 1/2 games of NL Wild Card pace-setters Philadelphia.

Tulowitzki finished 2-for-5 with three RBI, while the red-hot Carlos Gonzalez went 3-for-5 with two RBI to extend his hitting streak to a career-best 14 games for Colorado, which won its major league-leading 30th day game.

Bill Bray (0-2) took the loss after surrendering three runs on two hits and a walk in 1 2/3 innings in relief for the Reds, who have dropped three of four and saw their lead in the NL Central trimmed to six games after St. Louis downed Milwaukee earlier in the day.

Cincinnati sent 10 men to the plate and manufactured the first four runs of the game in the third.

Drew Stubbs walked, advanced to third on a Paul Janish ground-rule double and scored on a Brandon Phillips groundout. Janish then scored on Chris Heisey's two-out bunt base hit to third.

Joey Votto followed with another ground-rule double in front of Jonny Gomes, who flared a single into right to chase home Heisey and Votto.

Colorado came right back in the bottom half to get the game tied with a four- spot of its own.

The rally started with a walk to Jimenez that was followed by Eric Young's double and a walk to Dexter Fowler that loaded the bases with one out.

Gonzalez followed with a double to right to deliver two runs and Tulowitzki then tripled to center to chase home two more runs to level the count. Todd Helton walked to spell the end of the day for Aaron Harang. Jordan Smith came in and got Melvin Mora to ground into an inning-ending double play.

Harang was charged with four runs on four hits and three walks over just 2 1/3 innings in his shortest start of the season.

The Reds wasted an opportunity to retake the lead in the fifth as they had runners at the corners with nobody out and did not score. Jimenez struck out Stubbs, got Janish to pop out and fanned pinch-hitter Yonder Alonso.

Bray opened the fifth on the hill for the visitors and served up a two-out solo shot to Tulowitzki that gave the Rockies their first lead at 5-4.

The visitors threatened again in the sixth as they loaded the bases with two outs before Jimenez got Ramon Hernandez to ground out with his 123rd and final pitch of the afternoon.

Colorado expanded its lead in the bottom of the inning with three runs.

Aroldis Chapman assumed the hill with runners at first and second and two outs and gave up an RBI single to Eric Young, Jr. Fowler legged out an infield hit that was fielded by a sprawling Janish at short, who threw from his back wildly past second base, allowing Chris Nelson to score to make it a 7-4 contest.

An infield hit by Gonzalez loaded the bases and a passed ball by catcher Ryan Hanigan, who had entered the game with Chapman as part of a double switch, scored Young to make it an 8-4 game.

The hosts tacked on a pair of runs in the seventh against Carlos Fisher on an RBI double by Miguel Olivo and a pinch-hit RBI single by Ryan Spilborghs.

The Reds got a run back in the eighth on a two-out, run-producing hit by Juan Francisco.

Game Notes

Gonzalez has 10 multi-hit games, including in five of his last six, during his hitting streak. He has an extra-base hit in 12 of those games and has driven in a run in 10 of them...Jimenez has a league-leading 11 wins during the day. He improved to 8-1 at home this season and to 3-0 in five career starts versus the Reds...Colorado has won seven straight home games over Cincinnati...Heisey has hit safely in seven of his last eight...Reds pitcher Edinson Volquez was scheduled to make his second start for low class-A Dayton Monday afternoon and is expected to rejoin the team later this week.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.